The lowdown on the 2019 ATM Championship
John Ellis and Asuka Nakajima enter the final fortnight of the 2019 Asia Trail Master Championship as points leaders and therefore the runners to beat. On Saturday The Punisher 80k race In the Philippines marks the start of the ultimate points rush that culminates in the TNF Malaysia Mountain Trail Festival in Taiping, Perak, on 14 December. It is wonderfully exciting that both the men’s and women’s championship have not yet been decided until now. Nothing and nobody is certain yet. More, the women’s title campaign is bound to continue all the way to the last race in Taiping with no fewer than five amazing contenders for the throne. The men’s campaign, however, could conclude prematurely as Hong Kong-based Australian John Ellis has decided to take the bull by the horns and punish his rivals at … The Punisher!
So what are the potential scenarios to unfold in the next two weeks? Here’s the lowdown on the 2019 ATM Championship:
The Men: John Ellis can wrap it up this weekend thanks to SuperTrail wins
Today’s ranking:
John Ellis (AUS/HKG) - 2650 points (5+ races)
Hisashi Kitamura (JPN/MAS) - 2575 points (5+ races)
Milton Amat (MAS) - 2525 points (5+ races)
Tomohiro Mizukoshi (JPN) - 2290 points (5+ races)
Koi Grey (PHI) - 2264 points (5 races)
Sukrit Kaewyoun (THA) - 2200 points (5+ races)
Every single contender has reached the plateau of 5 races, so according to the rules of the ATM Championship - the Five Best Count system - it is or has been all about eliminating a runner’s ‘worst’ points performance during the season in order to still add more to his total points tally. (All six runners meet the other key conditions: at least one race abroad, and at least one SuperTrail). It is therefore significant now to look at each runner’s remaining ‘improvement potential’ in the four remaining races on the ATM calendar. As a reminder, the top 3 in the last races get:
The Punisher: 500 points - 450 - 425.
Ultra Trail Panoramic 100 miles: 550 points - 500 - 475
Izu Trail Journey: 550 points - 500 - 475
TNF MMTF: 550 points - 500 - 475
And so we arrive at the following:
Only John Ellis, Hisashi Kitamura and Milton Amat remain in the game. Tomohiro Mizukoshi is too far behind on points already to still surpass Ellis’ current total of 2650. Mizukoshi, who will run Izu Trail and MMTF, has an improvement potential of +300 in those two races, which puts him at 2590 - theoretically enough to finish second in this year’s Championship. Last year Tomohiro ended the season in third place. Koi Grey only has MMTF on the agenda, in which he can up his total to 2400 max (+136). For the colourful Flipino, it will be key to stay ahead of Sukrit Kaewyoun at MMTF, as the Thailander - who also runs UT Panoramic - still has an improvement potential of +250 to put him in the best case at a total 2450. So what about the Big Three:
John Ellis: will run Punisher and MMTF for sure, and leaves UT Panoramic optional. If he runs all, his improvement potential amazingly still is +150 as he can still eliminate his 3rd place in Sungai Menyala Forest Trail (425 points) and 3rd in the 9 Dragons (475 points). Maximum Total: 2800 points.
Hisashi Kitamura: will run Punisher, Izu Trail Journey and MMTF. His improvement potential in those three races is ‘only’ +100, putting him on a max total of 2675 points. Clearly, for Kitamura it is key that Ellis does not score any more points, which is why the spectacular Uglow runner has decided to skip his planned Osaka Marathon and fly to Davao instead to go head-to-head with John Ellis once more to prevent his idol from scoring a decisive victory…
Milton Amat: will run UT Panoramic and MMTF. Has the biggest improvement potential of the Three with +175, and that puts him at a theoretical maximum total tally of 2700 points.
Conclusion: if John Ellis collects the 500 for winning Saturday’s The Punisher and eliminates his 425 points from Sungai Menyala, he climbs +75 from 2650 to… 2725 total points, which is out of reach for both Amat and Kitamura.
Ellis had a brilliant game plan before the start of the year with a clear focus on performing in the SuperTrails and collecting all the bonus points along the way - even doing the 100 miles at Penang Eco. This is now proving to be Kitamura’s achilles heel, as he scored fewer points than Ellis in those particular top races. As for Milton Amat, we mentioned it in our race report of The Moon 100 back in June: his laudable fair-play gesture to help and assist his collapsed friend Wilsen Singgin and giving away a certain race victory while doing so is now costing him. The difference between winning and second place is 50 points, and had he scored the win in Moon 100, there would be no way for Ellis to become ATM champion already this weekend. Cruel, but alas. Nobody can blame Milton for what he chose to do: he most certainly deserves the “Fair Play Prize” of the season!
And yet, it is not over until it is over. To finish first, Ellis first needs to finish :-).
Below is our lowdown on the women’s ATM Championship conclusion.
The Women: Wide open battle with Nakajima setting the benchmark
Today’s ranking:
Asuka Nakajima (JPN/INA) - 2475 points (5 races)
Fredelyn Alberto (PHI/HKG) - 2414 points (5+ races)
Siokhar Lim (MAS) - 2400 points (5+ races)
Cecile Wael (PHI) - 2240 points (5+ races)
Montha Sunthornwit (THA) - 2205 points (5 races)
Carrie-Jane Stander (CAN/CHN) - 2069 points (5+ races)
Christine Loh (MAS/SIN) - 2050 points (4 races)
Veronika Vadovicova (SVK) - 1980 points (4 races)
We highlight the top 8 because the two runners in 7th and 8th respectively are among the Female Five to watch out for especially in the context of the Asia Trail Master title battle. Ces Wael, Montha Suntornwit and Carrie Jane Stander may all still compete in the next two weeks, but they can no longer match the current benchmark of 2475 points set by Asuka Nakajima.
Asuka Nakajima, Fredelyn Alberto, Siokhar Lim, Christine Loh and Veronika Vadovicova are the five contenders for the 2019 ATM title.
Let’s take a closer look at those five runners’ improvement potential in the remaining four races of the season. In fact, we have more flexible scenarios than in the men’s and for sure it will remain an open battle until the final 85 km race in Malaysia on 14 December. Asuka Nakajima leads with 2475. Her 5th and ‘worst’ result is 425 points (also for 3rd place in Sungai Menyala - like John Ells), so in MMTF she can improve still by +125 to 2600 total points. Mind you, that is if she wins MMTF. Nakajima is recovering from injury sustained at Borneo TMBT and is hoping to be fully fit for MMTF as it will indeed be a hit-or-miss for the always smiling Japanese runner, who switched from road to trail and emerged on the scene back in January by winning Tahura Trail in Indonesia, the ATM season opener. In any case, it is unlikely Nakajima will go into MMTF as the Championship points leader…
Hong Kong-based Filipino Fredelyn Alberto is second in the current ranking with 2414 points. She will run UT Panoramic first and could already hop ahead of Nakajima right there in northern Thailand next week. Alberto’s 5th result ‘to eliminate’ is also 425. Winning the 100 miles would mean +125 and that would put her on 2529 before MMTF. If she finishes 2nd in Panoramic, she ends up with 2489 points, still more than Nakajima today. Scoring the race victory in MMTF would deliver another+100 to Alberto so she as maximum total potential of 2629 points.
Veronika Vadovicova is for many the top favourite, despite she ‘only’ has four results so far and her fourth was a B-race (Tsaigu 80). The Slovakian said goodbye to Shanghai in July and went back to live in her home country, but she is back to complete her ATM campaign with Izu Trail Journey and MMTF. She does need those 6 results, because the 380 for winning Tsaigu 80 won’t be sufficient. If Veronika were to win Izu Trail Journey she would collect 550 and enter the Championship Final with 2530 points in the bag. On a side note, that means if Veronika wins Izu and Fredelyn wins UTP 100 miles, the difference between them is 1 single point in favour of the European… If Vadovicova then proceeds by claiming the race win in Malaysia, she obviously earns the ATM title as well with a total of 2700 points. To remember here is therefore that winning only Izu Trail Journey won’t be sufficient.
Now about the two Malaysian matadors among the Five: for many it might be surprising that Siokhar Lim is a genuine candidate for the ATM title, but if you look at her track record of the 2019 season it should tell you enough. Not for nothing did she earn herself the nickname “Steel” when she finished and battled for the podium in both the gruelling Moon 100 and Penang Eco 100 miles within six days. For Siokhar Lim, it cannot be long and tough enough: her ‘worst’ performance was 7th in the 70km long Vietnam Jungle Marathon - by far the shortest race she competed in. Collecting bonus points in several races, Siokhar Lim has scored 2400 points so far and lies third in the current ranking. She is set to run both Panoramic 100 miles and MMTF, with a total improvement potential of +300 to finish with a maximum total of 2700 - same as Vadovicova. In all fairness, winning any one race will be a hard ask for Siokhar but if the others fail to deliver for whatever reason the Malaysian Grandmaster can certainly pick up the spoils. The women’s dark horse is known!
Finally and perhaps most importantly comes Christine Loh. The “Pocket Rocket” has had an amazing season illustrated by clever race planning and two great victories in Chiang Mai and in Chiang Rai. With only four results in the bag, she can still collect a full whack in UT Panoramic next week. That could boost her total from 2050 now to 2600 if she wins it. Even if she finishes the 100 miles race behind Alberto, she would still take the points lead with 2550! Christine Loh could then still boost it to 2725 if she grabs the win in MMTF.
In conclusion, the women’s championship is anything but decided and it may very well be Malaysian “Pocket Rocket” Christine Loh sitting in the hot seat as we reach the big final 85km race in her home country, TNF Malaysia Mountain Trail Festival in Taiping, Perak, on 14 December!
The Full ATM Championship Ranking can be consulted on the site of our partner Race Timing Solutions.
