Apparently unhappy it did not work out in Philippines last weekend, John Ellis has now formally decided to start the 100 miles race of Ultra Trail Panoramic by boarding the plane to Thailand this Thursday afternoon. The ATM Championship points leader is worried the last race on the calendar next week, TNF Malaysia Mountain Trail Festival, suits his main challengers better and cannot wait to wrap things up beforehand. Hisashi Kitamura won’ t be there to stop him this time (he is running Izu Trail Journey, the Japan SuperTrail in his own attempt to still boost his ATM total) , but the Sabahan tandem of Milton Amat and Wilsen Singgin are determined to make it hard for the Hong Kong T8 ace.

Siangpure Ultra Trail Panoramic has been redesigned for this year and is now totally centred around Pai in the northwestern corner of the country. Both the 100 miles and the 100k race offer points for the ATM Championship and the Grandmaster Quest. It is not exactly and easy miler , with a total elevation gain of 8800 hm. The latter increases the victory chances of the Malaysians against the faster runner Ellis. Last October, in fairness, Milton Amat did not have the speed to compete with Ellis and Kitamura. But on technical mountain and thick jungle trail, Milton Amat has been absolutely dominant the whole season. Precisely why John Ellis fears him more than Hisashi Kitamura: the ATM Final in Malaysia next week is Amat’s cup of tea, especially if it is wet like last year.

Currently third in the ranking, Milton can still hit a total of 2700 ATM points if he wins Panoramic and also wins MMTF. Ellis has 2650 today and that means he needs 51 points to get the job done. As we analysed last week before The Punisher, Ellis has a 425-pointer as his ‘fifth and worst result’ so a win (550 points) or a second place (500 points) would suffice for him to jump out of reach by taking his total points tally to above 2700. Hisashi Kitamura can only reach a maximum of 2675 anymore and needs to win Izu and MMTF for that.

In conclusion, Milton Amat and Hisashi Kitamura need to score race wins this weekend, and have to hope Ellis won’t come second. That’s why all Malaysians are hoping for youngster Wilsen Singgin to keep up and protect Amat knowing that next week all bets would be off. Footnote: by collapsing on the beach of Koh Phangan 3km before the finish of Moon 100, Singgin jeopardised Amat’s championship chances as Job Tanapong took advantage of the situation to take that race win ahead of Amat. Points Amat is surely missing now, but all the more reason for Singgin to do his best in defence of his friend this weekend! And let’s not forget Singgin was the big winner of Ultimate 230 in Chiang Rai last October….

Other potential spoilers for Ellis could be local top runners Sukrit Kaewyoun, Nikom Tongjai and Yotchai Chaipromma. Sukrit himself will be running the best he can to get into the top five of the ATM Championship again. The difference in points between him, Tomohiro Mizukoshi and Koi Grey is minimal.

Note that since last year, the ATM championship regulations stipulate that only runners who have scored minimum 1 ATM result in 2019 can still score points in UT Panoramic and Izu Trail Journey. This measure is meant to enhance fairness between the title contenders and prevent one of them from, say, recruiting Jim Walmsley or Francois D’haene to come and run and take points away from the other title contenders.

The women’s Asia Trail Master Championship is bound to continue all the way to MMTF next week. We analysed the situation thoroughly last week, and The Punisher did not affect the title challenge of the five protagonists. Hong Kong’s Jcy Ho ran herself in the top five, though, and she might be keen to stay there but she can no longer score the required points to become the new ATM champion.

In UT Panoramic, three of the five title contenders will square off against each other and - in fact - not for the first time this season. The 4 Trails Thailand series have proven to be a good form determiner this season. While points leader Asuka Nakajima is biding her time and waiting to see what happens, Christine Loh, Fredelyn Alberto and Siokhar Lim will go at it on the 100 miles. It’s a tough ask one week before the ATM Final… For Fredelyn Alberto it will even be her first miler ever! Contrary to Christine Loh, who won Penang Eco 100 miles in 2017. Loh and Alberto have been competing fiercely over the past few months and in the last two races it was the Malaysian who got the upper hand, albeit only just. Either one of them has the best chance to enter next week’s Final at MMTF as the championship points leader and therefore woman-to-beat. However, to finish first you first need to finish and Siokhar Lim is the only one who has proven not to suffer from multiple tough-races-in-a-row.

What about the fifth contender for the title? Veronika Vadovicova will be running Izu Trail Journey on Sunday (preview coming tomorrow).

As usual we will be reporting live from Pai this weekend starting tomorrow on our ATM Facebook Page.